The European Climate Prediction system project (EUCP) has the following four objectives:
1. Develop an innovative ensemble climate prediction system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe for the near-term (about 1-40 years), including improved methods used to characterize uncertainty in climate predictions, regional downscaling, and evaluation against observations;
2. Use the climate prediction system to produce consistent, authoritative and actionable climate information. This information will be co-designed with users to constitute a robust foundation for Europe-wide climate service activities to support climate related risk assessments and climate change adaptation programs;
3. Demonstrate the value of this climate prediction system through high impact extreme weather events in the near past and near future drawing on convection permitting regional climate models translated into risk information for, and with, targeted end users;
4. Develop, and publish, methodologies, good practice and guidance for producing and using authoritative climate predictions for the 1-40 year timescale.
The system (objective 1) will combine initialized climate predictions on the multi-annual timescale with longer-term climate projections and high resolution regional downscaling, using observations for evaluation. Methodologies will be developed to characterize uncertainty and to seamlessly blend the predictions and projections. Users will be engaged through active user groups. The system will be utilized (objective 2) with users to co-produce information suitable for European climate service activities. A set of demonstrators will show the value of this information in real-world applications with user involvement (objective 3). Key outputs will include disseminating and publishing the project’s methodologies, and user-relevant data and knowledge (objective 4).
GERICS will contribute to the work package “Documentation, data exchange, and integrating science with users”.
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